Much as the number crunchers in the federal finance department would like to dismiss Ellen Russell as an irritating left-wing flake, there is a problem. She's a very good forecaster. Her projections of Ottawa's surplus have consistently been closer to the mark than theirs.

Russell then shows, using the finance department's latest fiscal update, that Canada will reach [Ralph Goodale]'s goal by 2015 without paying out a cent. Assuming a modest rate of economic growth over the next 10 years, Ottawa $501-billion debt will shrink, as a proportion of the nation's income, to 25 per cent.

Canada now has the lowest debt burden among the world's leading industrial nations. Using the federal surplus to reduce it further might make Goodale look like a fiscal virtuoso. But Russell offers strong evidence that it doesn't give taxpayers the best bang for their bucks.