Public opinion polls suggest that Aliyev's party would probably win a majority of seats in a free and fair election, but the young leader lacks the confidence to allow fair balloting. Officials who rigged the last election have not been replaced, and the government has refused to follow the Iraqi example of marking voters' fingers with ink to prevent multiple trips to the polls. Aliyev's party changed the electoral law to make it more difficult to uncover false balloting through the usual means of parallel-vote tabulation or exit polls. To date, Aliyev has not allowed the National Democratic Institute -- an American nongovernmental organization recognized around the world as a premier election-monitoring organization -- to observe the vote count.

Other [Bush] administration officials focus on Azerbaijan's oil exports to the West, ignoring recognition of the role that the country could play as an example of Muslim democracy. Bush and his foreign policy team must now make U.S. priorities and principles clear, especially because Aliyev is eager for Washington's embrace.

Finally, Bush must send a senior U.S. official to observe the election. Last fall, Bush wisely sent Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R- Ind.) to Ukraine. By denouncing the election fraud he witnessed, Lugar put the United States on the side of fair elections in the standoff that ensued. If push comes to shove in Azerbaijan next month, we should be on the right side -- the democratic side -- again.