I like talking politics with cabbies. They ask big questions in the small, angry words of people making a bad living. This guy certainly did: The mystery of Israel's dismal election campaign is why Mitzna's challenge to incumbent Ariel Sharon has engendered so little public support. The election mood is volatile. But barring a major last-minute shift, Sharon's Likud Party will get at least 30 seats in the 120-member Knesset, next to 20 or fewer for Labor, and the uncompromising Sharon will get another term. The prospect is frightening.

Which brings us to Mitzna's second problem, the Palestinians. [Ehud Barak] was a poor diplomat, but it was the Palestinians' turn to violence when peace talks failed that persuaded Israelis they lacked a partner for a peace deal. It may be that [Yasser Arafat] could not have stopped the terror attacks even if he had tried; but he has also flunked on effort. Nor do Israelis see any sign of a real Palestinian peace movement openly opposing terror attacks and pushing for compromise. In desperation, Israelis may say they support a unilateral pullout -- but they'd much prefer an agreement, with a solid promise of quiet after the withdrawal. Every bomb blast and chorus of ambulance sirens makes an agreement seem like a distant hope -- and Mitzna seem like a dreamer. The gut reaction,the right-now demand, is to hit back, and that is the one thing Sharon knows how to do.

The price is high. The new Sharon government is likely to be haunted by corruption charges, with the prime minister spending more time on his legal defense than national defense. For Israel, that means more political instability. In the meantime, the dream of ending the conflict with the Palestinians will be delayed again. When and if the [Bush] administration remembers that peace in the Middle East is a U.S. strategic interest, it will face the intractable Sharon instead of a cooperative Mitzna. And my hard- working cabby, dreaming of tourists, will find his till empty for many nights to come.