Since Israel's destruction of the Osirak reactor in 1981, Hussein has dispersed his WMD programs across the country, so that it is now nearly impossible to uncover without the aid of defectors. In 1995, the West caught a lucky break when information gleaned from one such defector, Lt. Gen. Hussein Kamel Hassan al-Majid, gave inspectors details about undeclared and unsuspected WMD production sites. The text of Resolution 1441 insists that Iraq furnish Unmovic with "immediate, unimpeded, unrestricted and private access to" anyone suspected of involvement in Iraq's WMD programs. Yet [Hans Blix] sees "practical difficulties" with this approach, meaning he's unlikely to pursue it. Fresh intelligence is thus not likely to become available via the UN.

If an American attack on Iraq - and an Iraqi attack on Israel - puts the Jewish state in a quandary, something similar goes for the Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority is instinctively sympathetic toward Iraq; the Palestinian media speak of "our sister Iraq." And to date, [Saddam Hussein] has given the Palestinians some $25 million; $10,000 apiece to the families of suicide bombers.

Yet just as Israel might be forced to stay its hand against Iraq, the Palestinian Authority also has reasons - as it did on September 11 - to tamp popular expressions of support for Iraq. Israel, many Palestinians believe, will use the distracting spectacle of a war against Baghdad to wipe out the PA or carry out wide-scale population transfers. As a result, [Mordechai Keddar] believes, even as some Palestinians dance on their rooftops, most "will get into the shelter in order not to have the wrath of Israel and the States fall upon them." They will do so, moreover, under the watchful gaze of a PA terrified of losing the last shred of support it enjoys from the American administration.