Baltimore Sun Store

Not all signals were positive in the latest numbers. There are distinct hints that some of the zestiest markets might have started slowing down. Of the 20 metropolitan areas with the biggest gains, none had an annualized quarterly rate that equaled or exceeded its appreciation rate for the year.

Similar shifts can be seen in dozens of other local areas, and a few appear to be heading into negative territory. Beaumont-Port Arthur in Texas had a 5.2 percent average appreciation rate over the 12-month period. Yet the first quarter annualized rate was a negative 8.6 percent. Syracuse, N.Y. posted a 12-month rate of 6.8 percent, but its annualized first quarter rate was a negative 3.5 percent.

The chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, David Seiders, agrees, as do most mortgage and real estate economists, whose refrain was summed up by Seiders: "This is not sustainable, not at the levels we've been seeing."