The toy executive isn't always this calm. This time last year, [Richard Sallis]' nightmares were filled with a smart-alecky yellow guy named Bart Simpson. Inspired by the popular TV show and T-shirt bonanza, several toy companies launched lines of Bart toys, and Sallis was worried.

Tracking by computer is hardly foolproof. Established toys like Ninja Turtles show patterns in July, but a new toy can slip through the computer cracks. Last year, the sleeper toy of the season was Go-Go My Walking Pup by Hasbro - not a huge hit on the summer computer printouts. ``A fuzzy, $50 dog just didn't appeal in summer,'' says Jodi Levin of the Toy Manufacturers of America. But by the height of the holiday season, Go-Go was walking out the stores. Kmart wanted to sell more, but the maker had run out.

Kmart is one of the top toy sellers in the country, along with Toys R Us, Wal-Mart and Target. [David Schuvie] is responsible for deciding what you will buy five months from now. Every day for the past month, he's been reading computer printouts from 50 Kmart test stores scattered throughout the country. The guesswork, the intuition, the focus groups are about to stop and toy ordering will become a numbers game. ``Everything we do from now on is based on exact sales,'' he says.