- No-penalty IRA withdrawal. This got lost in capital-gains fighting last year. Now you pay a 10% penalty on any cash you withdraw from an individual retirement account before you reach 59 1/2. You also have to pay ordinary income tax on your withdrawal. There are few exceptions. The president's plan would let you escape the 10% penalty but not the income taxes if you are a first-time home buyer and use the proceeds for the down payment on a home. The idea is to stimulate flagging home sales. Chances for passage this time are better: Both [Bush] and [Lloyd Bentsen] will be pushing for a version of the plan.

Most likely, Bush will propose relatively modest steps such as increasing grants for alternative-fuels research or requiring fleets of buses and rental cars to use more alternative fuels, says N. Foster Mellen, managing director of Petroleum Economics Ltd. If Congress seizes the energy issue, it may call for stronger action, perhaps raising national fuel-efficiency standards on cars or hiking the federal gasoline tax again - on top of a nickel-a-gallon increase last month. Other options include tax breaks for domestic oil production and the opening of Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for drilling.

There also was little surprise in Bush's double-edged message to the nation's banks and the Federal Reserve. ``Sound banks should be making more sound loans now,'' Bush declared, ``and interest rates should be lower now.'' Lower interest rates would help bring the economy out of its slump by sparking demand for loans, which would later translate into increases in spending.